The Next Great Earthquake (M9 or greater)
April 1st, 2007 by Kishore
Magnitude 9 quakes are generally caused by subduction events. There are 40,000 km of subduction boundaries around the Pan Pacific Rim. Seismologists have been studying these subduction zones to identify high risk areas for high mag quakes. Why? A mag 9.0 quake caused the 2004 tsunami in Indonesia, killing over 300K.
Earthquake science utilizes all sorts of data, earth temperature, geologic features, physics, even historical data. When you boil down the search for the next big one, we always end up at a question of probability.
Looking at all this data, they have identified a number of troubling (ie high probability) subduction zones. One big problem, the Sumatran-Andaman earthquake that caused the 2004 tsunami did NOT occur in a likely zone.
What does that mean? Most likely, our understanding of “danger” subduction zones is by no means refined. That doesn’t mean we should abandon our study of these zones, but frankly admitting our lack of knowledge in this area seems right on.
When it comes to policy, all of these subduction zones need to be treated as dangerous. Knowing tsunamis can travel thousands of miles with little loss of violence, a threat along a US West coast subduction zone is a threat even to Japan.
Don’t think it’s a worry here in the states? Check out this, a suggestion that a M9 earthquake helped formed Seattle.
For more information:
The Next Great Earthquake
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